Senate District 8 Recall Election Is the Most Important, with Far-Reaching Implications

The last of the great political battles of 2011 is shaping up.

Until now, the Republicans and conservatives have swept the field. Beginning with the 2010 November elections, the Democrats have not scored a single win. Republicans have been celebrating these victories and, for the most part, feel invincible. They are looking forward to increasing their majorities in the Assembly and Senate; with the biggest prize Kohl’s vacant U.S. Senate Seat clearly in their sights.

They have successfully completed Phase I of the Walker Agenda, defunding the money to the Democrats by weakening the public unions, and are moving forward into Phase II, privatization of many government services. They were feeling “fat, dumb, and happy, until the Democrats decided to use the rare political maneuver of recall. A successful recall will place a “fly in the ointment” of the Republican Agenda. At present the Republicans hold a 3-seat majority in the State Senate and have some seats that are extremely vulnerable. If the Democrats are successful in gaining the Senate Majority; there goes Walker’s Phase II, since those programs would never get through the Senate. For the first time since November; the Republican leadership is nervous. How do I know this; it’s simple, listen to the Republican’s media “mouthpieces," and you’ll begin to understand the problem. Mark Belling, Charlie Sykes and Jeff Wagner are the best sources of information for what is going on out in the “right field”. If the Republicans want to sell a message, they contact the three radio hosts. This is one of the Wisconsin “Right’s” most successful tactics to motivate and keep their base motivated. However, for the right and left, their bases will not be enough to either defend or capture the 9 Senate seats up for grabs.

It is the moderates and independents that will again decide this important election. To motivate the moderates and independents, it will take a “boatload” of media money to accomplish this task. We can expect that the races in major media markets to be extremely expensive. Of all the races, the Darling vs. Pasch race stands to be the most expensive. Here’s where the problem comes in for the Republicans; according to Mark Belling, not enough Republicans are taking these races serious. This is impacting campaign donations and volunteers, both of which are needed for the Senate District 8th race.

The 8th District race is seen as a referendum on the Walker Agenda and the legislature. Senator Darling is one of the most powerful Senators in the legislature and is credited as one of the architects of the recent legislation. What shocked so many in the 8th District was Darling’s turn about on programs she had strongly supported in the past; typified by her vote against funding of Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin. Expect the Democrats to mount a media campaign pointing out her inconsistencies, “flip flops," general isolation from constituents and her unquestioned support of big business interests. On the other hand, the Republicans will paint Sandy Pasch as a Doyle supporter and a tax and spend liberal. Unquestioningly, big money is going to be needed to sway the moderates and independents.

I think, we will see the Democrats dump everything they have into the race. Already, Pasch has volunteers lined up to walk the district and work the phones. Her supporters are highly motivated, whereas, if Belling is correct; the Republicans are struggling for volunteers. Now, I’m not overlooking that the Belling report on Wednesday, June 22 was nothing more than a scare tactic to motivate the right, but if true it could forecast problems ahead for the Republicans. If Darling is unseated, I think it will be the harbinger of a successful Walker recall effort. Of greater value to the Democrats will be the stop to redistricting by a Republican majority and force it into the courts again. This will impact for a decade how the legislature will be made up and make it difficult for any one party to dominate the legislature as the Republicans are currently doing.

There is one last issue that surrounds this recall election and that is Walker Phase II; the privatization of government services. Darling has always been a key supporter of privatizing government social services. In the mid-1990s when Milwaukee County and the State of Wisconsin were sued for failure to protect neglected and abused children and the State took over control of the program, creating the Milwaukee Bureau of Child Welfare; Darling was on the advisory boards that created the privatized foster care delivery system. That same system was responsible for a number of abusive foster care homes and children died as a result. The Director of the Milwaukee Bureau of Child Welfare, Denise Revels Robinson, who Senator Darling overwhelmingly supported, was eventually transferred out of her position and left to assume control of the Washington State Child Welfare Program under Susan Dreyfus.  As an update, it is reported that Denise Revels Robinson received a 98 percent no confidence vote on her running of that state’s program. The program there has not been any more successful there than it has been here. Governor Walker and Senator Darling are both so strongly committed to privatization, that the loss of Darling to the Walker Team will effectively block him going forward with his plans.

The next six weeks are going to be crucial to how Wisconsin proceeds forward. In a summer election where every single vote will count; those who turn out the greatest number of supporters and are able to sway the moderates and independents will walk away with the victory, for better or worse.