Progressive Political Perspective on the Open Senate Seat Race

Yesterday Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin announced her run for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat left open by the retiring Herb Kohl. My initial reaction was one of excitement, my progressive ideology taking hold, but the more I thought about it, doubt began to creep in as to whether this was something positive for the bigger political picture.

My dilemma is, although my heart, mind and soul do support Tammy, I am concerned that she may not be electable in a statewide race due to her solidly progressive positions and liberal credentials. This breaks down simply as an issue between losing control of the U.S. Senate to the Republicans; or to take the risk in bringing in more progressivism to the Senior Chamber.

Ever since Senator Kohl announced his retirement, the Wisconsin State Republicans have been licking their chops in anticipation of picking up his seat and possibly the U.S. Senate. Looking at their field, Mark Neumann has already thrown his hat into the ring, Tommy Thompson probably will run and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald has indicated he will enter the race in October. Neumann and Thompson are already receiving criticism from members of their own party. Neumann troubles the State Republican Party as to his electability in a statewide race; his past efforts haven’t born much fruit. Thompson, on the other hand, was a very popular governor, but is labeled as a big spender and he is no longer in sync with the present day party. Speaker Fitzgerald remains an unknown commodity outside his district and isn’t clear whether he can win a statewide race.

Of all the prospective candidates, Congresswoman Baldwin’s intellect leaves the others in the dust. As Bob McBride, one of the better commentators on “The Patch” recently observed; “She presents herself well and, frankly, as we saw in the last presidential election, style trumps substance most of the time. Particularly when the opposition won't be putting up anyone nearly as polished.”  This is a telling statement from a pragmatic committed conservative. However, no matter how polished she is, she will still have a tough sell to convince moderates and independents to vote for her.

My problem is that I have no idea what the state polls are reflecting concerning voter dissatisfaction with regards to the Republicans. For Ms. Baldwin to capture the moderates and independents she needs to be elected; there needs to be a high level of discontent with the Republican Party. I would hope that she has accurately calculated the electorate’s satisfaction level toward the Republicans. If the satisfaction is high, then Baldwin’s campaign could have a struggle. She will have to raise the public’s general dissatisfaction levels toward the Republicans, and her opponent in particular.

Since 2012 is a general election year and President Obama is struggling in the polls, he too will have to create high levels of dissatisfaction with the Republicans. In the State of Wisconsin, President Obama and the Democratic Senatorial candidate will be inexorably linked. Various pundits are outlining an Obama strategy that will focus on the Republican’s legislative obstructionism; thus shifting responsibility for the nation’s negative state of affairs onto the Republicans. The Democratic Senate Candidate will have to do the same. If it is Tammy Baldwin, she will most assuredly attack the Tea Party House freshmen and compare her record to the Tea Party Republicans she has served with. This has all the markings of being a bare knuckles brawl. This is something I think that Congresswoman Baldwin is capable of and will more than hold her own. On the other hand, Ron Kind would have a more difficult time getting down and dirty. If I were Obama, in this kind of fight; I would rather have a Tammy Baldwin running for the Senate seat than Ron Kind.

I will have to make a decision soon as to whether I will support Tammy over Ron. As the campaign unfolds we’ll see who has the best chance of electability. For me, electability is the key issue.